Back to the 1970's - or The Fourth Turning?

I have got this vibe lately that I have not felt since the late 1970's. Back in 1978-79, I vividly remember riding my banana-seat bike around Eau Claire, listening to the grown-ups talk about The Energy Crisis. I remember waiting in a line for gas with my dad in 1978. I remember hearing talk about Recession. Inflation. Unemployment. The never-ending crisis in the Middle East. Bad dance music on the radio. It was this kind of crap that contributed to the general cynicism that Generation X is (accurately) accused of today.

Now, after nearly two decades of the so-called "Salad Days" of the '80's and '90's, we seem to be back to where we began. There hasn't been too many lines at the gas station, at least to date. But I heard on the news tonight that gas could be up to $6 or $7 a gallon by 2009.

Sweet.

That means it will be only $240 to $280 to fill up my 40-gallon tank on the Suburban. My other car, by the way, is a little Ford Escort with a 12-gallon tank. That would be $72 t0 $84 to fill up. A mere pittance.

It feels, to me, like the 1970's all over again. And not just because I continue to become more like Red Foreman from That '70's Show every day.

Now, I am not going to politicize this because I believe these things are cyclical. For me, however, it's odd to be the parent of young children who is talking about "cutting back" Not only am I beginning to look like my dad, I'm being faced with some of the same economic and societal issues he faced back in the 1970's. Interesting. And kind of creepy.

This talk of "cycles" reminds me of the work of authors William Strauss and Neil Howe. Strauss and Howe argue that, for centuries, American generations follow four distinct cycles. Here is a quick overview from the Wonder That Is Wikipedia:

Strauss and Howe believe that history shapes each generation depending on what phase of life it occupies as it encounters key historical events--a period of crisis will leave an impression on children that is different from the one it leaves on midlife leaders. The boundaries of each generation and the characteristics of its members emerge because they share a common age-location in history. For instance, Strauss and Howe define the Boomer generation as anyone who doesn't personally remember World War II. They are different from the Silent Generation, who share the formative experience of childhood during the war.

Thus history creates the generations--and these in turn reproduce the cycle of history. As the protected children of a High who never personally experienced Crisis, and as the moralistic, uncompromising crusaders of an awakening, the Prophet-Boomers are most likely to provoke a new crisis when they grow to control the nation's institutions. As the overachieving children of an Unraveling who never personally experienced an Awakening, and as the team-working, conformist civics of a crisis, the Heroes are most likely to provoke a new awakening when they get control.

Where are we now? Strauss and Howe wrote a book in 1997 called The Fourth Turning. They argued that an upcoming event (9-11?) would change the course of history and lead to the next generational cycle. In addition here is what Strauss and Howe had to say about The Fourth Turning back in 1997:

"The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire. Yet this time of trouble will bring seeds of social rebirth. Americans will share a regret about recent mistakes -- and a resolute new consensus about what to do. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.

"The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and efforts -- in other words, a total war.
...
"America’s post-Crisis answers will be as organically interconnected as today’s pre-Crisis questions seem hopelessly tangled. By the 2020s, America could become a society that is good, by today’s standards, and also one that works.

"Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse -- or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension."

Now there is some heavy stuff to think about tonight before bedtime. What do you think? Where are we headed? Is America at a proverbial Fork in the Road? Let me know.

Peace.

Jeff