Last year around this time, I offered my first-ever AL Central baseball prediction in this post. As with most of my sports-related predictions, I was a little off.
Here is the way I predicted the 2007 AL Central would shake down:
Detroit: 98-64
Minnesota: 91-71 (Wild Card)
Cleveland: 88-74
Chicago: 86-76
Kansas City: 74-88
Well, here is what actually happened:
Cleveland: 96-66 (+8 Off from prediction)
Detroit: 88-74 (-10 Off)
Minnesota: 79-83 (-12 Off)
Chicago: 72-90 (-14 Off)
Kansas City: 69-93 (-5 Off)
Basically, Cleveland was a lot better than I thought, and Detroit, Chicago and the Twins were not as good. Kansas City was Kansas City.
It is once again that glorious time of the year - the opening of baseball season. So in the spirit of last year's inaccuracy, I give you my "can't miss" 2008 American League Central Prediction:
Detroit: 98-64
Cleveland: 92-70
Chicago: 86-76
Minnesota: 74-88
Kansas City: 71-91
The Twins, even thought they have not admitted it, are rebuilding for their new ballpark in 2010. And I think they are doing the right thing. As I have stated, I do not blame them for not retaining Torii Hunter or Johan Santana. They have spent serious money to retain Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddeyer, Delmon Young and Joe Nathan for the long haul. I actually think the Twins will outhit last year's team in both average and power. Their batting order should look a lot like this:
Carlos Gomez - CF
Joe Mauer - C
Michael Cuddeyer - RF
Justin Morneau - 1B
Delmon Young - LF
Jason Kubel/Craig Monroe - DH
Brendan Harris - 2B
Mike Lamb - 3B
Adam Everett - SS
I also believe the Twins will have an above-average bullpen but the starting pitching will be sub-par. They may start upwards of 10-12 different pitchers this year in an effort to find a quality rotation. Starting pitching will kill the Twins in 2008.
Side note to Jase - this is the year the Brewers win the NL Central and make the playoffs for the first time since 1982. You heard it here first - but don't worry, it's not "A Vision!"
How do you think the division will end up this year?
Jeff
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5 comments:
Looking back to last year I nailed my prediction on the Tigers and Brewers. Not so much on the Twins.
As with last year, you have Tigers with too many wins. I think Cleveland and Tigers will be around 92 wins. Chicago around 82 wins, Twins around 80 wins.
I hope your prediction is not correct because I think the Twins will do better this year, because of improved offense, namely the speed of Carlos Gomez and the Twins approach to the game in general and their and ability to manufacture runs.
Below are 4 offensive stats for the Twins, Tigers & Indians for 2007:
Twins
Avg .265
HR 118
Runs 715
OBP .330
Tigers
Avg .287
HR 177
Runs 887
OBP .345
Indians
Avg .268
HR 178
Runs 811
OBP .343
If Gomez can get on base once or twice a game, with the people batting behind him, Maurer etc. they should be able to manufacture more runs and increase their Run total.
The addition of Delmon Young should offset the loss of Torii’s home runs and again with Gomez running around the bases, as Gardy likes to say, the opposing pitchers might focus more on him and serve up gopher balls to the likes of Mauer, Morneau and Cuddeyer as well.
I know everyone is concerned about our starting pitchers, but all pitchers started out young, so all the young bucks have to do is give Gardy six or more innings and turn it over to our strong bullpen.
So my thinking is, if everyone can stay healthy, (i.e. Gomez), the offense should be greatly improved and if the pitching is o.k. to good, they should be able to win 85 to 90 games.
Jeff
I concur with uncle rob...I think the twins will do better than you predicted, but probably not over
.500
As for the Brewers, they are to me what the Vikes are to you...an annual disappointment. I don't see them finishing above the Cubs.
Free and Uncle Rob - I hope both of you are right. And, as I have stated, it would not be the first time I have been wrong with a prediction. For the Twins to compete they are going to see a pitcher or two to "surprise" this year. Possibly Blackburn?
Jase - I have told many people that I see correlations between the Twins/Packers and the Brewers/Vikings. Mainly with the ability to win championships and not continually disappoint their fan base.
I'll say the order will be:
1. Cleveland (95-67)
2. Detroit (92-70)
3. Twins (87-75)
4. Chicago (80-82)
5. KC (74-88)
Detroit's age and lack of a bullpen will catch up to them. I think the Twins have added more than the White Sox and the White Sox core is still old.
While I've heard people say KC will be better, I can't really see it, so I'll just give them a few more wins than last season.
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