The Joe Mauer Conundrum

As you may have heard, Minnesota Twins catcher and reigning American League Most Valuable Player Joe Mauer has one year left on his contract. After 2010, he is free to sign with any team in Major League Baseball, i.e. the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox or Washington Nationals. With the season opener only a couple of weeks away, people around these parts are starting to get a tad bit nervous about the fact that Mauer (a local St. Paul kid) has not yet signed on the dotted line with the Twins. Speculation is starting to mount that Joe might be lured away by the bright lights of New York or Boston and the huge endorsement opportunities that might come with playing in those cities. Some articles are starting to pop up such as this and this and especially this on the subject.

Conventional wisdom points to Joe Mauer staying in Minnesota. Just walk around any street and ask somebody what they think and you will hear the following:

1. Joe will never leave Minnesota. He is from St. Paul. His entire family attends every game. he has cabin Up North that is more of a Castle Up North that he would not want to abandon during the baseball season.

2. His brother, Billy Mauer, just opened a car dealership. If Joe left, this would piss people off and sabotage his brother's new business.

3. Joe will take less money to stay with the Twins than he would with Boston or New York because he wants the Twins to be able to build a winning team around him.

4. Joe has great friends on the Twins such as Justin Morneau and J.J. Hardy that he would not want to part ways with.

Now, I am not going to pretend to know if any of these points are true or false or hold any type of validity at all. I hope they are at least partially true. I have come to a conclusion regarding the whole process about signing Mauer, however:

Signing Joe Mauer is actually far more important "off the field" than it is "on the field."

Let's start with "on the field" Joe Mauer. The dude is the reigning AL MVP and a three time batting champion. He is a gold glove winner. He is excellent defensively and, according to Twins pitchers, calls a great game. What worries me, however, is that he is literally so good that the Twins have no leverage in these contract negotiations. He can command virtually any salary he asks for, probably in the $25-30 million per year range. If the Twins succumb to this demand, Joe Mauer will account for nearly 30% of the Twins entire payroll. If he gets injured (as he has in the past), 30% of the payroll is on the DL. And remember that he is 6'4" and playing catcher - a position that is very hard on the knees and body. The whole situation smacks of the Timberwolves and Kevin Garnett in the late 90's when they were basically the best player in basketball and five stiffs. They were good enough to make the playoffs, but couldn't compete once they did. Then again, once the Wolves traded Garnett, they became the worst team in basketball, which could serve as a cautionary tale for the Twins.

Would the Twins be better off trading Mauer, as Jim Souhan suggests in his article? That depends on what they receive in return, which is not always equal value (see Johan Santana trade). It is intriguing to speculate what the Twins could receive from Boston or New York for Mauer. In addition, one of the top-5 prospects in the Twins farm system is a catcher - Wison Ramos. Now, don't get me wrong, even as I offer these points I believe that the Twins are a better team on the field with Joe Mauer than without him, but it is not as clear cut as people think. And signing him is not without it's negative ramifications for a team that cannot afford a limitless payroll.

On the other hand is the "off the field" impact of Joe Mauer. This, in my opinion, is where the Twins absolutely cannot afford to lose Joe Mauer. The public relations hit that they would take is immeasurable. I simply cannot imagine the backlash from the general public towards the Twins if they do not resign Mauer. They would get publicly raked over the coals like no organization has ever been raked. The mere fact that Target Field, a ballpark built with public funds "to allow the Twins to retain their talent" opens this spring. Bad timing to lose your best player who grew up 10 miles away. People would cancel their season tickets. Nearly 11,345 teenage girls would no longer buy Twins t-shirts with the number 7 on the back. And I don't think they would buy Jon Rausch t-shirts instead. All of this is lost revenue for the Twins organization. In addition, the impact on revenue from the bad press and negative public reaction would be huge. From an off-field perspective, the Minnesota Twins have no choice but to sign Joe Mauer, which leads to the aforementioned positives and negatives "on the field."

Thus, we have the Joe Mauer Conundrum.

What do you think will happen?